High End Miami Has Peaked

Does it make sense to pay 5th Ave Manhattan prices (1K-3K/sf) in Miami Beach? I don’t think so. Here’s a scatter plot of prices paid for the insanely overpriced Setai South Beach (2 bedroom units). If I had included all types of units, the crash would be more drastic. We are on the precipice people. CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE.

Florida Unemployment Rate: Orbiting Earth

Reposted from the Miami Herald (the Miami-Dade stats are again highly suspect): Florida lost 59,000 more jobs in November BY SCOTT ANDRON sandron@MiamiHerald.com Florida’s unemployment rate rose to 7.3 percent last month, the highest rate in 15 years, according to state figures released Friday morning. The state also remained higher than the national rate of 6.7 percent, according to the figures from the state Agency for Workforce Innovation. The state has lost 207,000 jobs over the past year — including 59,000 in the past month alone, the numbers show. Both losses...

60 Minutes: Ready For the Second Wave of Foreclosures?

Miami-Dade is the “Repo Riviera”!!!! 25% of the units in Jade are in foreclosure (this is why closing rates do not matter)!!! Some definitions: Alt-A includes no documentation loans, low documentation loans, and NINJA (No Income, No Job, No Assets) loans. Pay-option ARMs are negatively amortizing loans; you have the option to pay part of the interest, full interest or interest and principal - 90% of people pay the minimum and the loan resets at 110-125% LTV. Transcript here

Masters of the Universe

I one day hope to make a viral video. Here’s my latest and best attempt. If you like it, email the link to your friends ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T4YbXnPqQrc&fmt=18 ).

Miami-Dade City Crime Comparison

To make an informed decision about housing I think there needs to be some consideration of personal safety. What good is a luxury condo if you’re killed by a mugger when you go out for a stroll? The so called “Arts District” and the Pace Park area of Miami proper has this problem (see earlier post about gruesome murder). I put together a chart using the 2007 FBI violent crime statistics. According to the FBI: “Violent crime is composed of four offenses: murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assault”. Note that...

Miami-Dade Foreclosure Update: November

The Miami-Dade County Clerk came out with the November foreclosure numbers today and the news is getting better but it’s still not good. 4,855 foreclosures in a month is HIGH, but with September pushing nearly 6,000 foreclosures, this month looks not so terrible. My 2008 total foreclosure projection still stands at greater than 55,000. I believe 2009 will be MUCH WORSE. Again, that’s unless the government passes some kind of foreclosure moratorium (Florida actually did last month, but its currently optional). A moratorium will only act push the inevitable to a later...

Case-Shiller Miami Update: September

I made a chart with the latest Case-Shiller Home Price Index values released on November 25. The important thing to note is that the rate of change slowed down during the summer selling season this year (May, June, July, August) however it re-accelerated in September. This is not a good development for homeowners. CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE. CLICK GREEN ARROW FOR LARGEST IMAGE. RIGHT CLICK LARGE IMAGE TO SAVE I think the rate of change will continue at around this level thanks to all the foreclosures piling up. From today’s Miami Herald: Home seizures sharply higher Foreclosures...

Update: Projected Prices

I made some scatter plots for select Miami condos. Condo sales are listed by price per square foot. These are all sales listed with the Miami-Dade clerk from January 2007 until now. This data includes sales not listed by the MLS. I also used a least squares regression and/or decay model to project where prices could be heading by December 2009 (month 36). The most important thing to note is that most prices just recently collapsed (notice how prices start as a crazy speculative cloud and then drop and converge along an imaginary trendline) and therefore my models are likely...

Florida Unemployment: Rocket Ship

Reposted from the Miami Herald (the Miami-Dade stats are highly suspect): Florida jobless rate hits 7 percent, a 15-year high BY SCOTT ANDRON sandron@MiamiHerald.com Florida’s unemployment rate hit 7 percent in October, the highest rate in 15 years, the state labor department announced Friday. That’s an increase of half a percentage point from the previous month. Miami-Dade’s unemployment rate was 5.8 percent, up only one-tenth of a percentage point. For the past 12 months, Florida has lost 156,200 jobs, more than any other state, including the much-larger...

Are Luxury Miami Condos Safe?

Yesterday a gruesome discovery was made and Miami’s one month streak without a murder was broken. This is one of those little details a Realtor® may fail to mention when selling you a new “luxury condo”. Click for larger image.

Miami Price Declines To “Accelerate”

Erin Burnett of CNBC interviews Chairman of the S&P 500 Index Committee David Blitzer. The video speaks for itself.

Who’s Going To Save Miami Real Estate?

Lots of Realtors® talk about the strong demand for second homes in Miami from Russians, Europeans, South Americans, and Canadians - with the US dollar being so weak, it’s like buying “50% off”. Well, the developments of the last few months are screwing up the last imaginary savior (never would have saved the condo market anyway) for the Miami condo market. The great thing about this revaluation was that it was so quick that no one had any time to even see it coming or take action. Miami didn’t even get a temporary bump in sales!!! Looks like Realtors®...

Welcome To Miami

Just another day in Midtown or Downtown Miami (Warning Profanity). Midway through this thing gets wild! Update: Is this actually Miami? I’m not 100% sure, but I can easily see this happening in Miami. Miami is filled with wacky hobos!

Hard Times for Hollywood

Excellent story at The Guardian by Jonathon Franklin. Can anyone claim that housing will rebound after reading this? ‘You feel bad. You don’t want to take their wedding rings from them - that’s their memories and everything,” says Michael Bruce from behind a row of thick steel bars. “But they need the money and that’s what we are here for.” Bruce holds out a black velvet jewellery tray. Each row holds a dozen wedding and engagement rings: big diamond, little diamond, stylish or gaudy, he has dozens. “When they take the ring off...

Florida On The Precipice Of Depression

The following was written by Mike Morgan, J.D., CRS, GRI . He specializes in Florida real estate and acts as a consultant to major banks and private equity firms: I was going to call this “Banks March Us Into Depression,” or maybe more fitting is . . . “Complete Collapse of US Banking System.” Folks, that is what we are looking at. I don’t see any way around it. What we’re seeing here in Florida, is your crystal ball. And what happens here, is coming to a town near you . . . soon. This past week I didn’t write anything, because what...