Case Shiller Home Prices: Miami down 2.7%, Tampa down 3% last month

News flash: Miami home prices crash another 2.7% (4.61 points) in one month vs. 2.2% in the previous month. Tampa prices were down 3% in one month. At this rate, we are in for a great year of price declines in 2009. I’m still expecting a full retracement to 1997 price levels (adjusted for inflation). CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGES. Price declines from peak courtesy of Calculated Risk. Explanation of the Case-Shiller methodology: The Case-Shiller index prices are measured monthly and tracks repeat sales of houses using a modified version of the weighted-repeat sales methodology...

Update 3: United States in Depression

It really doesn’t matter what the government statistics say, the United States is in a depression/”decession”. The way the stats are calculated have been revised many times over the years, and if you use the old method of calculating unemployment we’re hovering around 18% (vs the 25% peak in 1934). Also, housing prices need to fall just 4% more to exceed the Great Depression decline. If you still don’t believe me, watch the following video. Some of those grown men are on the verge of crying. Update - NB: I think those financial ne’er-do-wells...

The Rise and Fall of Miami’s Realtor® to the Stars

The real question is, why would anyone do business with this guy? Honestly, I think he may be cognitively impaired. It’s like the NASDAQ just crashed and he can’t wait to buy more Nortel Networks stock (click for larger image): Dollar cost averaging, anyone?

Suzanne Researched This Commercial

The Spot: A title card reads “The Debate.” We fade in on a couple standing in their kitchen, arguing about whether to buy a new house. The wife is the aggressor; the husband has his doubts. “Suzanne researched this,” says the wife in exasperation. As we’re wondering who Suzanne is, the ad cuts to an image of the couple’s kitchen telephone. “This listing is special, John,” says the voice of their real estate agent over the speakerphone. “You guys can do this.” The husband caves. “This is awesome,” says the...

Closing Rates are Immaterial

A certain Baghdad Bob of Miami Realtors® just loves to post closing rates for condo buildings every few months. He seems to have it ingrained in his warped mind that hitting the 70% sold mark somehow makes a condo building a safe “investment”. For your consideration, I present Miami Condo Forum Closing Rates: The following price charts are of sales recorded by Miami-Dade County. Since it’s the government, it’s very slow to record sales and nothing has been updated since August. According to the MLS there have been many sales at significantly lower...

Miami Dade Foreclosure Update for February 2009

We broke the all time monthly foreclosure record in January 2009 with 6,042 foreclosures. There seems to be a pretty consistent trend upwards. And the real insanity hasn’t even begun yet! The 2009 yearly foreclosure projection is going to be pretty noisy for the next few months until we get more data.

A World Without Realtors®

This article was originally published on this site on June 3, 2008. I am re-running it because the fantastic Dr. Housing Bubble has come to many of the same conclusions about Realtors®: I’m young, but still old enough to remember there was once a profession called travel agent. These people would arrange flights, hotels, and tours into packages for people going on vacation. Back in the day when they ruled the travel world - prior to the advent of the Internet - every travel related business including hotels, airlines, tour companies, and cruise lines had to pay them...

Dubai Real Estate Crash Reminiscent of Miami Crash

Dubai is in the “no bid” stage. We all know that the “any bid” stage soon follows. And thus the collapse begins.

How to Take Advantage of Crashing Rents

I can’t get this video embedded. Just click here to watch. The very end is the best part.

Guest Post: Miami Citizens Seeking to Move Out of Asbestos and in With Healthy Alternatives

Located on the southeastern tip of Florida, Miami has a booming financial and entertainment industry. Miami’s beaches and tropical weather draw thousands of tourists every year. Although Florida does not contain naturally occurring asbestos, the substance still made its way to a large portion of the state. Home to Kennedy Space Center and many shipyards such as the Port of Miami, asbestos was a major form of insulation and piping because of his heat, sound and flame resistant qualities. Shipyard workers, electricians and mechanics all have been likely to be exposed to...

The Ugly Truth: America’s Economy is Not Coming Back

I’m posting a brilliant essay by Dave Lindorff. Please visit his site and support this talented writer. The emphasis at the end is mine. The Ugly Truth: America’s Economy is Not Coming Back Wed, 01/28/2009 - 18:31 - dlindorff President Barack Obama and his economic team are being careful to couch all their talk about economic stimulus programs and bank bailout programs in warnings that the economic downturn is serious and that it will take considerable time to bounce back. I’m reminded of an experience I had with Chinese medicine when I was living in Shanghai...

Real Estate Downfall

I was just re-watching this clip and it occurred to me that I should post it. It’s a few months old, but still great: Update: I was just thinking about this clip and realized it may be offensive to some people. It has 1.5 million views and 5 stars on youtube so I didn’t think so. But if anyone is offended at all, please inform me and I will remove the clip from my site.

Update: Depression 2009 Futures At 13%

I guess the GDP numbers convinced traders that this recession won’t be so bad. Even so, it’s still not time to buy a luxury Miami condo with valet, spa, and 3 pools. Miami condo speculators are still fckd.

The Marx Brothers and the Last Florida Real Estate Bubble

The Cocoanuts - Oh you can get stucco (stuck-o) from Miami CondoForum on Vimeo The Cocoanuts - Realtors from Miami CondoForum on Vimeo The Cocoanuts - The Setup from Miami CondoForum on Vimeo The Cocoanuts - Pre-auction Scam from Miami CondoForum on Vimeo

Don’t Get High On Your Own Supply

After such an historic real estate bubble, you’d think the 6%ers (Realtors®) are rolling in cash. On the contrary, I’ve  anecdotally noted that many Realtors® actually believed their own hype and were dipping into the Kool-Aid they were selling. Sadly, many Realtors® and their family members are now stuck with multiple Miami condo boxes. Too bad…they should have heeded the wise words of “lesson number two” from what has become a Miami institution (tongue in cheek) - the movie Scarface: Frank Lopez: Lesson number one: Don’t underestimate...

Wall Street Journal: 17% of Florida Jumbo Loans 90 Days Delinquent

So not only does Florida have considerable issues with subprime, Alt-A, and option ARMs, but now our jumbo loans (those above the limit that FNM and FRE will purchase) are imploding. The Wall Street Journal reports that Florida and California, where most jumbo loans were made, are experiencing some major problems: About 6.9% of prime “jumbo” loans were at least 90 days delinquent in December, according to LPS Applied Analytics, a mortgage-data research firm. The rate was up sharply from 2.6% a year earlier. In comparison, delinquencies of non-jumbo prime loans that...

Miami vs. Tampa: Home Price Death Match

CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE While Tampa puts forth a good effort, lets be honest here, the real competition exists between Miami, Phoenix, and Las Vegas. While we’re in 3rd place now, don’t ever count Miami out. We overtook San Francisco last month, and I’m certain Miami will not disappoint. Stay tuned. CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE.

Case Shiller Tampa: November Update

Tampa home prices were down 2.8%(5 points) in November -  next stop, the 150s. I’m still looking for a full retracement to 1997 prices. CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE.

Florida Unemployment Rate: Zips Past The Moon

As expected, unemployment surged from 7.4% to 8.1% in just one month. Remember, Florida had an economy based on two huge bubbles: construction/real estate and tourism. The tourism bubble has just burst, and the fallout from that is just now being felt. Art Basel Miami Beach was slammed and Fontainebleau Miami Beach, which reopened in November after a billion dollar renovation, is feeling the pain now. Turns out that without home equity line of credit (HELOC) extraction most people can’t afford $400/night hotels and $20 drinks.  Vast fortunes will be lost…hopefully...

Case Shiller Miami: November Update

News flash - Miami down 2.2% (4 points)  in the last month; slices through the 170 level like a champ! I’m still expecting a full retracement to 1997 levels. CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE. Explaination of the Case-Shiller methodology: The Case-Shiller index prices are measured monthly and tracks repeat sales of houses using a modified version of the weighted-repeat sales methodology proposed by Karl Case and Robert Shiller. This means that, to a large extent, it is able to adjust for the quality of the homes sold, unlike simple averages. The Case-Shiller Index is much more...