Florida Unemployment Rate Smashes Through 10%

The Florida unemployment rate hit 10.2% in May. Up from 9.7% in April. Up from 3.8% in May 2007. This is getting scary. CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGES.

Miami Dade Foreclosures are Down

The drop is likely due to a recent change in the law. Will foreclosures stay down for long? I don’t think so. Even after factoring this in, projected filings for the entire year remain at record levels.  CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGES

Barney Frank: Hall of Shame

Behold, one of the idiots in Congress that is bankrupting you, your family and the United States. Are Americans this pathetically stupid? This man enjoys high approval ratings in Massachusetts. By the way, this hypocrite is a renter according to wikipedia.

Case Shiller Miami plummets for yet another month

Case Shiller data shows that Miami crashed another 3.5% (~5.5 points). At this rate we will be at 103 in 12 months. When will inflation start to support nominal values? I don’t know. However, with interest rates, HOAs, and property taxes having only one direction to go (up), it would take Weimar style inflation to stabilize this market. The single biggest factor preventing prices from stabilizing is the fact that very few Miamians have 20% down payments. Most people in Miami are flat broke and living day to day. If you’ve got $80K laying around for a down payment...

Miami Dade foreclosures are still in the stratosphere

Florida Unemployment Update: approaching 10%

February was revised up to 9.6% from 9.4% and thus unemployment technically only increased 0.1%, but it’s actually up 0.3% from my last update.

Case Shiller Miami: Cliff Diving

Case Shiller Miami is out today and down another 5 points or about 3% in a single month. Housing recovery? Ha! CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE.

Miami Dade Foreclosure Bomb Detonates

I was just wondering what was taking the Miami-Dade County Clerk so long to release the March foreclosure stats. Well, the March 2009 number is out now and it’s uncanny! March easily surpasses all other months. In fact, foreclosures last month are almost as great as the entire year of 2005! Just imagine all that supply being dumped on the market (so far it isn’t) in real time. This dramatic rise in the foreclosure numbers is likely due to the ending of the optional Charlie Crist foreclosure moratorium on Feb 28. Just wait until you see the April numbers and beyond...

Person Murdered in Pace Park

Anonymous tipster info: an individual was ruthlessly killed outside of multiple “luxury” condo developments including 1800 Club on Monday. CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE I searched for a news story covering this incident but apparently this has been suppressed and/or just another case of lazy Miami reporting. Here’s a quote I found at a real estate cheerleader’s blog: “Anyone have any details on the Pace Park murder? I left work early on Monday and was driving home on Bayshore and the cops had the whole basketball court area roped off in yellow tape,...

Miami Real Estate Futures Collapse

Check out the action today on the CME Real Estate Futures for the Miami November 2009 contract! CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE. What are real estate futures? From the Chicago Mercantile  Exchange website:   “S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (CSI) Indices futures and options are the first comprehensive financial tools that make it possible to manage U.S. housing risk.  These products provide opportunities for protection or profit in up or down markets, and extend to the housing industry the same tools for risk management and investment that previous CME Group innovations...

Case Shiller: Miami crashes 3.7% in a single month, Tampa collapses 4.4%

The most recent Case Shiller data set is out (January 2009) and the results do not look good for homeowners across the nation.  Miami was down about 6 points (3.7%) and Tampa was down 6.8 points (4.4%). I’m still expecting a full retracement to 1997 price levels (adjusted for inflation). CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGES. Miami is down about 43.5% from peak! Most markets, including Miami have a ways to go. Price declines from peak courtesy of Calculated Risk. CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE. The price declines seem to have re-accelerated with some markets seeing 5% decreases. Note about...

Florida Unemployment is on a Tear

The February unemployment rate jumped to 9.4%. January unemployment was revised up from 8.6% to 8.8%.  This meteoric rise in the unemployment rate reflects the collapse of Florida’s dual economic bubbles: real estate and tourism. If you think this is bad, just wait until the tourist season ends.

Miami Dade Foreclosure Update: Still Going Strong

There’s still a lot of strength in the foreclosure numbers released by the Miami Dade County Clerk last week. My 2009 foreclosure projection was revised down by just 500 and still hovers near 72,000. The projection is still going to be pretty noisy with so little data. A surge later in the year may take us near 100,000 foreclosures. CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGES.

Florida’s Unemployment Rate Has Gone Parabolic!

I’ll let the charts do the talking:

Seeking a source for an AP news story

Dear readers, I’d like to assist an Associated Press reporter working on a story relating to condo associations and HOA delinquency rates. How are the new Fannie Mae lending guidelines (which have HOA delinquency rate cut offs for loans) affecting the buildings with high delinquency rates? Common sense implies bad things, but journalists cannot rely on conjecture.  If you have intimate knowledge of a condo association and its financial health please email me through the “contact” link above. I’ll put you in touch with the journalist. You can divulge...

I’m On A Boat!

In Miami and on a boat! Warning profanity: The video that they’re mocking (also set in Miami).

Miami Back to Historic Price to Rent Ratio? Think Again.

I’ve received some questions about a chart Calculated Risk recently posted demonstrating that Miami is nearly back to 1999 price to rent ratios. Reproduced here: Convincing evidence that we are reaching a bottom? Think again. Here is the BLS rent index used to make to make the aforementioned chart: This graph is laughable! Anyone involved in the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale rental market, whether it be a tenant or landlord, knows that rental prices are plummeting (and they most certainly are not rising). Here’s a tip: drive around Miami at 9 pm and look into the scores...

Case Shiller Home Prices: Miami down 2.7%, Tampa down 3% last month

News flash: Miami home prices crash another 2.7% (4.61 points) in one month vs. 2.2% in the previous month. Tampa prices were down 3% in one month. At this rate, we are in for a great year of price declines in 2009. I’m still expecting a full retracement to 1997 price levels (adjusted for inflation). CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGES. Price declines from peak courtesy of Calculated Risk. Explanation of the Case-Shiller methodology: The Case-Shiller index prices are measured monthly and tracks repeat sales of houses using a modified version of the weighted-repeat sales methodology...

Update 3: United States in Depression

It really doesn’t matter what the government statistics say, the United States is in a depression/”decession”. The way the stats are calculated have been revised many times over the years, and if you use the old method of calculating unemployment we’re hovering around 18% (vs the 25% peak in 1934). Also, housing prices need to fall just 4% more to exceed the Great Depression decline. If you still don’t believe me, watch the following video. Some of those grown men are on the verge of crying. Update - NB: I think those financial ne’er-do-wells...

The Rise and Fall of Miami’s Realtor® to the Stars

The real question is, why would anyone do business with this guy? Honestly, I think he may be cognitively impaired. It’s like the NASDAQ just crashed and he can’t wait to buy more Nortel Networks stock (click for larger image): Dollar cost averaging, anyone?